• VRIGHT EXCHANGE posted an update in the group Financial Services Group

    3 months, 2 weeks ago

    Can Fin Homes Ltd (CANF) – Q1FY26 Results Summary

    CMP: ₹816 | Mcap: ₹10,870 Cr | Rating: BUY | Target Price: ₹940
    Valuation: 1.6x FY27E P/ABV

    Key Performance Highlights

    Growth & Disbursements
    AUM: ₹38,773 Cr

    +9% YoY, +2% QoQ — Slowest growth in 16 quarters, in line with estimates.

    Disbursements: ₹2,015 Cr

    –18% QoQ, +9% YoY — Slightly below estimates (–2%).

    Repayments: ₹1,459 Cr (Repayment rate at 3.8%, +10 bps QoQ)

    Segmental Insights
    Ticket size growth:

    ₹>30 Lakh loans: Disbursements +41% YoY, AUM +30% YoY

    Borrower profile:

    70% of book in Salaried & Professional segment

    86% of book in housing loans (including CRE)

    Avg. ticket size: ₹24 Lakh (housing), ₹14 Lakh (non-housing)

    Sourcing mix:

    79% of AUM sourced via DSAs; top 20 DSAs account for 8%

    72% geographical exposure in southern states

    Financials & Margins
    Margins & Income
    NII: ₹363 Cr (+13% YoY, +4% QoQ) – In line

    Other Income: ₹9.3 Cr (+34% YoY, –44% QoQ) – QoQ drop due to lower disbursements

    Net Revenue: ₹372 Cr (+13% YoY, +2% QoQ)

    Spreads: Improved by 7 bps QoQ to 2.62%

    Yield: 10.1% (–2 bps QoQ)

    Cost of funds: 7.47% (–9 bps QoQ)

    Operating Efficiency
    Cost-to-Income Ratio: Improved to 18% (from 19% in Q4)

    PPOP: ₹304 Cr (+9% YoY, +3.2% QoQ) – In line

    Profitability
    PAT: ₹224 Cr (+12% YoY, –4% QoQ) – Below estimate due to higher credit costs

    Return Ratios:

    ROAA: 2.2% (vs 2.6% in Q4)

    ROAE: 17% (vs 18.5% in Q4)

    Asset Quality
    Gross NPA: 0.98% (+7 bps YoY, +11 bps QoQ) – ₹378 Cr (up ₹45 Cr QoQ)

    Net NPA: 0.54% (+5 bps YoY, +8 bps QoQ)

    Provision Coverage Ratio: 45% (vs 47% in Q4)

    Total Provisions: ₹492 Cr (vs ₹466 Cr in Q4), including ₹59 Cr management overlay

    Funding Profile
    Total Borrowings: ₹35,489 Cr

    Mix: Banks 53% | NHB 17% | NCDs 22% | CP 7% | Deposits 1%

    Analyst Take
    Overall View:
    A moderate performance marked by slower AUM growth, modest disbursement trends, and a slight deterioration in asset quality due to seasonal factors.

    Positives:

    Spread improvement

    Operating leverage (cost control)

    Growth in higher-ticket segment

    Concerns:

    Elevated credit costs

    Asset quality uptick

    Regional/geographic concentration in the South

    Next Steps
    Awaiting clarity on credit growth, margins (NIM), and credit costs in management concall scheduled Monday, 3:00 PM.

    Estimates and TP will be revisited post-concall.