Dead Wrong: Trump’s Jibe Doesn’t Hold Up Against India’s Metrics

US President Donald Trump’s recent remark dismissing India and Russia as “dead economies” has drawn sharp contrasts with hard data. Far from stagnation, India has demonstrated unparalleled economic dynamism, cementing its status as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

The country’s robust macro fundamentals, record-breaking equity markets, and booming services exports all point to long-term resilience and opportunity.

1. India: The World’s Growth Engine
India continues to top the global growth charts:

Real GDP growth is projected at 6.5% in FY2024 and 6.4% in FY2025, according to IMF and RBI estimates.

India is outperforming:

US (projected at 1.9% in 2024, 2.8% in 2025),

China (4.8% in 2025),

Brazil (2.3% in 2025).

This sustained growth, driven by domestic demand, public capex, and private consumption, positions India as a standout economy in a fragile global environment.

2. Market Cap Momentum: $1 Trillion Surge Since March 2025
India’s equity markets are not only booming—they’re leading globally:

Market cap surged by 28.2% in 2023, and India added $1 trillion in market capitalisation between March and July 2025, reaching $5.33 trillion in total.

Jefferies projects India will reach $10 trillion in market cap by 2030, driven by over 167 high-ROE companies with market values above $5 billion.

In contrast:

China’s market cap shrank by 5.9% in 2023

Brazil’s dropped 31.7%

Sensex and Nifty Power the Rally
Sensex: +12.5% YTD

Nifty: +13.5% YTD

BSE MidCap Index: +20.7%

BSE SmallCap Index: +26%
This broad-based rally underscores growing investor participation across large and mid-small cap stocks.

India: Top Performer Among Global Stock Markets
India’s market cap grew 21%, the highest among the top 10 global equity markets, ahead of:

Germany: +13.8%

Canada: +10.8%

Hong Kong: +9%

UK & Japan: +8% each

US: +2.4%

China: +2.7%

India now ranks fifth globally in total equity market value, trailing only the US, China, Japan, and Hong Kong.

3. Explosive Services Exports
India’s services sector continues to be a global force:

FY22: $255 billion

FY24: $325 billion (+27.5% YoY)

FY25 projected: $384 billion
This nearly 15% CAGR growth is driven by IT services, financial consulting, software exports, and digital platforms.

4. Rising Real Per Capita Output
India also leads in improving per capita productivity:

2023: +8.3%

2024 (proj.): +5.5%

2025 (proj.): +5.3%
In comparison:

US: 2.1% → 1.9% → 1.2%

Brazil: 2.8% → 3.0% → 1.6%

Russia: 4.4% → 4.3% → 1.8%

This reflects a structural improvement in living standards and domestic output efficiency.

5. Russia: Also Not “Dead”
Despite geopolitical headwinds, Russia’s economy is showing resilience:

GDP Growth: 4.1% in 2023, 4.3% in 2024

Real per capita output is also improving, driven by energy exports and regional trade realignments.

Investor Implications
India stands out as a strategic long-term investment destination:

Strong macro tailwinds from domestic demand, public infrastructure spending, and private sector capex

Resilient financial markets with deepening investor participation

Opportunities in:

Tech & Digital services

Financial services

Capital goods and manufacturing

Export-oriented sectors

Defense

Global investors are already recalibrating allocations to India as a core part of their EM portfolios.

Final Thought: Not “Dead”—Decisively Dominant

India is not just surviving; it’s thriving. With unmatched growth, investor confidence, and economic momentum, the “dead economy” label falls flat against overwhelming evidence. For long-term investors, India offers scale, stability, and opportunity like few other markets in the world.