Market Updates

Macro & Commodities

Copper surged 4% overnight, hitting a multi-month high.

YTD 2025: +21% (vs. 2024: +7%, 2023: +2%).

Supply disruption at Freeport’s Grasberg mine driving price strength.

Investor Insight: Positive for Hind Copper, Vedanta; may lift margins in cables, wires, and capital goods companies.

Crude oil (Brent) climbed above $69/bbl on renewed supply concerns.

Tailwind for upstream (ONGC, Oil India), headwind for OMCs.

Banking & Financials

Motilal Oswal (PSU Banks Outlook)

PSBs loan growth outpacing private banks after 15 years (12% vs. 10%).

Market cap up 5x since FY20, still trading at reasonable valuations (RoE 18–19%).

Top picks: SBI, PNB.

Investor Insight: Favorable structural cycle; limited downside given earnings CAGR ~14% over FY26–28E.

CITI on SBI – Resumed Buy, TP ₹1050. Loan growth 13–14% YoY, stable asset quality.

Macquarie on Financials – Near-term caution: margin compression & muted earnings.

Tactical trades: Long HDFCB/ICICI; Short IIB.

Industrials & Infra

Cochin Shipyard (Kotak Inst) – Sell, TP ₹860.

Govt’s ₹700 bn package & MoU with HD KSOE are positives, but execution challenges remain.

HAL (CLSA) – Outperform, TP ₹5436.

Ahead of delivery milestones on LCA Mk1A. Backlog visibility US$22bn; pipeline US$54bn.

Reality Check for Realty – All 21 listed players posted negative returns YoY.

Worst hit: Puravankara -38%, Godrej Properties -37%, Brigade -31%.

Investor Insight: Sector derating continues; avoid fresh exposure until demand revival visible post festive + GST cut impact.

Healthcare & Pharma

Glenmark Pharma (Nomura) – Neutral, TP ₹1500.

Exclusive license with Hengrui for oncology ADC; upfront $18m, milestones up to $1.1bn.

Investor Insight: High potential, but 5–7 year monetisation horizon.

Sun Pharma (MS) – Overweight, TP ₹1948. Preparing Day-1 entry into GLP-1 space. Specialty portfolio expanding with US launches.

Lupin – FDA tentative approval for HIV treatment (positive for US sales).

Ipca Labs – Tech transfer deal with Biosimilar Sciences for monoclonal antibody (positive long-term).

Consumer & FMCG

HSBC sees sector recovery aided by base, GST cuts & tax breaks.

Upgrades: Britannia, Nestle (Hold).

Preferred: Marico (Buy TP ₹870), GCPL (Buy TP ₹1470).

Tata Consumer (Goldman Sachs) – Buy, TP ₹1290. Margin recovery from lower tea prices.

Technology & Electronics

Cyient (Kotak Inst) – Reduce, TP ₹1180. Strategy reset; weak energy vertical.

Dixon Tech (UBS) – Buy, TP ₹23,000. Next leg of growth via backward integration into display/camera modules. EBITDA margins to expand 110 bps by FY28.

Auto & Industrials

Tata Motors – Negative. Jaguar Land Rover failed to finalise cyber insurance pre-attack.

NTPC – Added 660 MW capacity; total now 83,696 MW (positive).

Derivatives & Flows

Nifty Futures closed at 25,112 (-0.57%), Bank Nifty at 55,252 (-0.85%).

FIIs net sellers (₹2,426 Cr); DIIs net buyers (₹1,212 Cr). Net outflow: ₹1,214 Cr.

Max Pain: 25,100; Resistance: 25,550–25,650; Support: 25,000.

Investor Insight: Bias remains mildly bullish if Nifty sustains >25,000.

Key Positives (Investor Lens)

Copper rally → Hind Copper, Vedanta, cable makers.

PSU Banks – Structural turnaround; SBI/PNB leaders.

Pharma catalysts – Sun (GLP-1 entry), Glenmark ADC, Lupin US approval.

Consumer recovery → Britannia, Nestle, Marico, GCPL.

Defence theme intact – HAL deliveries tracking ahead.

Key Risks

Realty sector continues to bleed.

Execution risks in shipbuilding (CSL).

Crude rally may pressure OMCs & inflation outlook.