Brokerage Updates – September 30, 2025

Telecom & Towers

HSBC on Indus Towers – Initiate Reduce, TP ₹310
Growth muted with Airtel rollout slowing and Vi demand uncertain; lack of pricing power noted. Scenario analysis shows bull case already priced in.
Valuation: TP implies EV/EBITDA 5.4x FY26e & 5.2x FY27e.
Upside Risks: (1) Vi capital raise boosting tenancy; (2) higher-than-expected lease rentals.

IT Services

CLSA on Coforge – Initiate Outperform, TP ₹2,346
Strong domain expertise in financial services & travel verticals driving growth. Forecast FY26–28 CAGR: revenue +15%, EBIT +16%, EPS +22%.

MS on Coforge – Tactical Buy; Maintain Overweight, TP ₹1,880
Expect Q2/H2 revenue & margin resilience, limited EPS downside risk, and improving FCF margins; potential re-rating.

MS on Mphasis – Overweight, TP ₹3,625
Strong deal wins expected; valuations compelling with scope for growth-led re-rating.

Banking & Financials

MS on Kotak Bank – Overweight, TP ₹2,600
Growth recovery underway post past challenges; loan growth, NIM stability, easing MFI stress, and comfortable liquidity outlook. Expect F27–28 PPoP/EPS CAGR 18–20%; RoA >2%. Re-rating potential high with supply-side pressures easing.

CLSA on SBI Cards – Maintain Underperform, TP ₹800

CLSA on Paytm – Maintain Underperform, TP ₹920.

Macquarie on HDFC Life – Underperform, TP ₹700
Q2 margins under pressure; ULIP impact from GST; protection improving post cuts.

Oil & Gas / Energy

Citi on OMCs – Government reaffirms undervaluation & policy stability; LPG compensation intact; low risk of fuel price cuts ahead of Bihar elections.

HPCL: Buy, TP ₹530

BPCL: Buy, TP ₹440

IOCL: Buy, TP ₹190

ONGC: Sell, TP ₹205

MS on Oil Marketing PSUs – Meeting with Petroleum Minister highlights focus on improving market cap of SOEs, stable pricing, LPG recovery.

Quick Commerce

UBS on Eternal & Swiggy – Buy; TP Raised

Eternal: TP ₹400

Swiggy: TP ₹580
Industry growth remains strong; FY27–30 GMV raised +15–30%, EBITDA +15–40%.

Pharma

Nomura on Lupin – Buy, TP ₹2,350
Acquires VISUfarma (ophthalmology, EU-based) for €190mn; adds €54mn CY25E revenue at ~30% margin; deal fully funded via cash.

MS on Lupin – Equal Weight, TP ₹2,096
Acquisition strengthens EU footprint; valuations imply 11.7x 2025e EV/EBITDA.

HSBC on Pharma Sector – US to impose 100% tariff on patented drug imports unless firms localize production. Sun Pharma most exposed (~17% FY25 revenue).

Real Estate

Nomura on Anant Raj – Buy, TP ₹700
Strong positioning in data center (DC) theme with lower capex costs; FY26 DC revenue target ₹1.5–2bn. RE cash flows to support DC capex.

Jefferies on Real Estate – Sector pre-sales growth to remain robust; developers on track for 20%+ growth. Preferred: DLF, Lodha, Godrej Properties.

Consumer & FMCG

Jefferies on HUL – Buy, TP ₹3,000

MS on HUL – Equal Weight, TP ₹2,335

BofA on HUL – Neutral, TP ₹2,840.

MOSL on Nestle – Neutral, TP ₹1,300
Strong 10–12% CAGR across categories FY25–28; valuation rich at 68x FY26 EPS.

MOSL on Astral – Buy, TP ₹1,650
Backward integration to aid margins; adhesives biz to double in 5 years; strong growth across segments.

Jefferies on Welspun Living – Hold, TP ₹120
US tariffs hit profitability; mgmt expects recovery post-penalty rollback.

Autos & Industrials

BofA on Autos – Sept registrations end positive; PVs & 2Ws grow, tractors strong, CVs bottoming out.

Jefferies on Tata Motors – Underperform, TP ₹575
JLR recovery ongoing; PV bookings robust; CV outlook sanguine.

GS on Industrials – Buy KEI, Sell Dixon, Neutral Polycab
Expect export weakness in Q2 but domestic demand steady; Dixon’s guidance optimistic vs. GS estimate.

GS on Indigo – Buy, TP ₹6,000
Strong international demand (+20% YoY), resilient margins, festive tailwinds in Q3.

MOSL on TCI Express – Neutral, TP ₹730
Weak volumes, margin risks despite macros supportive; capex plans of ₹280cr FY26–27.