Brokerage Updates- 3rd Oct 2025

Consumer Durables

Nuvama on LG Electronics India – BUY

Strong brand with robust parentage.

Industry CAGR: 8–10% (₹96,900 cr in CY24 → ₹1.44–1.59 lakh cr by CY29E).

FY19–25 CAGR: Revenue +8%, EBITDA +5%, PAT +6%; FY25 YoY growth 14%/37%/44%.

ROCE/ROIC median 34%/89%, projected 45%/106% in FY25.

$600 mn capex announced for a third unit (domestic + export).

Valuation: 35.6x FY25 EPS.

Financials

BofA Securities on Banks/NBFCs

RBI MPC: Policy rate unchanged, neutral stance.

22 announcements; 9 impact Banks/NBFCs.

ECL framework from Apr 2027; Basel III could reduce SME risk weights.

Lending rules rationalized → lower infra borrowing costs for NBFCs.

Big private banks benefit most; mixed for mid-size & PSU banks.

Jefferies on Banks

Status quo on rates positive for large private banks; mildly negative for NBFCs/smaller banks.

ECL transition (Apr 2027) impact can be cushioned via lower risk weights over 5 yrs.

Relaxed bank loan norms aid credit growth.

Stay positive: HDFC, Axis, ICICI, SBI.

Morgan Stanley on Axis Bank – Overweight (TP ₹1,450 from ₹1,325)

Reinforcing turnaround story.

Additional structural steps taken in past year.

Macro upturn supportive.

Gradual re-rating expected vs large private peers.

Morgan Stanley on Kotak Bank – Overweight (TP ₹2,600)

Expect price outperformance in next 30 days.

Positive outlook on disbursements & margins.

After 2 years of headwinds, bank positioned for strong growth.

Morgan Stanley India Strategy (Ridham Desai)

Market underestimating growth cycle turn.

Earnings & market peak still ahead.

India’s low beta → outperformance in global bear mkt, underperformance in bull mkt.

Preference: Domestic cyclicals > Defensives & external-facing sectors.

Real Estate

Morgan Stanley

Q2 presales (Top 5 developers): ₹11,000 cr (+44% YoY).

H1 already 55% of FY26 full-year estimate.

Stronger-than-consensus: Godrej, DLF.

Potential disappointments: Lodha, Oberoi.

Auto

JP Morgan

September commentary > volume data.

Maruti underperformed in wholesale, retail in line.

Hero lagging in retail.

M&M outperforming in PVs & tractors.

2W wholesale and retail broadly aligned.

Cement

Jefferies

Prices steady despite weak demand (–0.5% MoM; –1–1.5% QoQ).

FY26 YTD prices +5–6% YoY (vs est. +4%).

GST cut 28% → 18% already passed on by companies.

Pharma

Investec on Natco Pharma

5–10 yr growth focus on first-wave products & complex R&D.

US market key; scaling ops & onshoring.

Targeting 50% share in GLP-1.

Adcock deal strengthens SA pipeline; M&A to expand globally.

Diversifying across 8–10 countries.

Spirits

Jefferies on Allied Blenders – BUY (TP ₹620)

Backward integration on track (PET bottling + malt distillery).

Single malt launch in 4–5 years.

Distillery expansion in Maharashtra → margin uplift (+300 bps FY25–28E).

Capital Goods/Infra

Goldman Sachs on L&T – Neutral (TP ₹3,540)

Expect strong Q2 (double-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA, PAT).

Order inflows +15% YoY.

Watch FY27 pipeline, especially EPC & offshore projects in Middle East.

Metals & Tubes

Nuvama on APL Apollo Tubes – BUY (TP ₹2,039, earlier ₹1,941)

Q2FY26 sales 8.55 lakh tons (+13% YoY, +8% QoQ) – record volumes.

Weak channel demand due to liquidity; discounts on general structures, VAP steady.

VAP mix at 57% (55% YoY).

EBITDA/ton ~₹4,900; operating leverage to support.

Valuation: 36x Q2FY28E EPS.

Batteries & Energy Storage

MOSL on Amara Raja – Neutral (TP ₹1,030)

2GWh gigafactory on track (SOP by 1H CY27).

Lead costs stable; tubular plant margin +300–400 bps.

Recycling plant to save 30–40 bps.

Capex ₹2,500 cr so far; ₹6,000–7,000 cr planned for 16GWh project.

EBITDA margin ~10–11% at 10GWh scale.

Nuvama on Amara Raja – BUY (TP ₹1,120)

2W aftermarket demand +6–7%, 4W demand +10–11% FY26E.

EBITDA margin est. 11.5% (Q1 FY26) → 13% (Q4 FY26E) → 14% (FY27E).

LAB segment resilient; expected to outpace industry by 3–5%.

Lithium cell plant (1 GWh) deferred to H2 FY27.

Target based on 15x Sep-27E EPS for LAB + lithium & investments.

Technical View

CLSA (Laurence Balanco)

Nifty consolidating in a new range:

Support: 24,337–24,432 (confluence of 200-DMA & prior base).

Resistance: 25,448–25,669.

Lack of follow-through → market in pause mode within defined range.