Weekly Review: 29 Sept – 4 Oct 2025

Market Snapshot & Trend

• After several volatile sessions in late September, the equity markets staged a modest rebound. The Sensex rose ~224 points (≈ 0.28%) on Oct 3, while the Nifty gained ~58 points (≈ 0.23%) to close around 24,894.

• Over the week, indices were up ~0.97% (both Sensex & Nifty) on a holiday-shortened week.

• The rally was led by Financials, Metals, and some pockets of Consumer strength. PSU Banks and midcaps saw selective buying.

• Global cues were mixed: the U.S. political deadlock, dollar strength, and concerns over rates weighed sentiment. The rupee remained under pressure, closing near ₹88.77 / USD
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Sector & Theme Moves

• Banking / Financials: Recaptured interest, helped by regulatory easing moves (credit rules, share lending relaxations).

• Metals / Basic Materials: Strong performance, led by names such as Tata Steel, Nalco etc.

• Autos / Consumer: Tilted positive on festive sentiment, improved sales data in some cases.

• IT / Exports / Tech: Quiet, with investors cautious owing to U.S. tariffs, outsourcing tax proposals, and global macro risks.

• Macro / Policy / Flow Dynamics

• RBI Policy: The rate was held at 5.50%. Inflation guidance revised lower to ~2.6%, GDP projection lifted to ~6.8%.

• Foreign Flows: FPIs remained cautious through September, pulling out significant capital. Domestic institutions continued buying, cushioning the pressure.

• IPO Pipeline: October is expected to be heavy with new listings — Tata Capital, LG Electronics India, and WeWork being marquee names.

• Currency & Rates: Rupee’s weakness was a drag; global dollar strength and U.S. yields remain key sensitivities.

• Key Takeaways & Risks

• The rebound was tentative, not broad-based. Strength was concentrated in financials, metals, and midcap triggers.

• The market is in a consolidation phase at higher levels, with critical support around 24,600–24,400 and resistance near 25,000–25,200.

• For sustained upswing, return of FII flows, stability in the rupee, and positive corporate earnings must align.

• Macro risks: U.S. interest rate cycles, tariff uncertainty, crude volatility, and currency logjams.