Daily Market Update — 6 October 2025

Macro & Market Overview

RBI Policy: The central bank maintained the repo rate at 5.5%, signaling continued vigilance on inflation but confidence in India’s growth trajectory.

Rupee & Currency Flows: The rupee remained under mild pressure due to global tariff tensions, though RBI intervention in offshore markets helped stabilize volatility. Upcoming large IPOs such as Tata Capital and LG Electronics India are expected to attract foreign portfolio inflows, supporting the currency.

Inflation Trends: Manufacturing PMI data for September showed price rises at a 12-year high, indicating that inflationary pressures persist at the input level.

Global Credit Cycle: Global rating agencies flagged tightening credit conditions that may lead to reduced liquidity in Q4 2025.

Trade Policy: India and the EU began the 14th round of free-trade talks, aiming to finalize the FTA by year-end.

Market Sentiment: Equities ended the previous week on a positive note, gaining nearly 1%, aided by a neutral RBI stance and healthy flows. Analysts expect volatility this week (October 6–9) as Q2 earnings begin and global cues remain mixed.

Nifty Outlook: Support is seen at 24,600 and resistance in the 25,000–25,250 zone.

Sector-Wise Highlights

1. Financial Services & Banking

PSU banks and select NBFCs remained in focus after a steady performance last week.

Upcoming Q2 results will be key for assessing loan growth, NIMs, and deposit cost trends.

Broader sentiment remains constructive, though analysts caution about potential credit tightening and asset quality risks if inflation persists.

2. Metals & Mining

Steel and non-ferrous stocks such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Hindalco saw continued buying on expectations of higher global demand and supply discipline.

Commodity prices firmed amid output cuts in China and positive construction data globally.

Watch for input cost pressures, freight costs, and trade policy developments affecting exports.

3. Consumer, Retail & FMCG

L’Oréal India reported 5% FY25 growth amid stiff competition from digital-first beauty brands.

Broader FMCG sentiment remains stable, supported by festive demand, though rural recovery remains uneven.

Payments ecosystem developments continued, with fintechs and networks exploring tokenization and passkey-based authentication as alternatives to OTPs.

4. Technology & IT Services

Limited sectoral action; investors are awaiting Q2 commentary from large IT exporters.

A weak rupee provides near-term earnings support, though concerns persist over slowing discretionary tech spends in global markets.

Focus remains on deal wins, utilization rates, and wage control.

5. Infrastructure, Engineering & Capital Goods

The sector remains supported by government capex visibility and healthy order inflows.

Analysts expect companies like L&T to benefit from expansion into aerospace, defense, and clean-tech infrastructure.

Input cost inflation and execution delays are near-term challenges.

6. Energy & Utilities

Rajasthan announced revised power tariffs — relief for smaller consumers offset by a surcharge on industrial users.

Broader sector outlook remains stable with continued renewable additions and steady demand growth.

Investors should watch fuel cost trends and policy clarity on renewable integration and cross-subsidy structures.

7. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals

No major corporate announcements, but investors are positioning ahead of Q2 earnings.

Regulatory updates, drug approvals, and pricing control remain key catalysts.

Currency movements also play a role in profitability for exporters.

8. Real Estate & Construction

Realty counters were mixed, reflecting sensitivity to borrowing costs and pre-festive booking trends.

Developers are focusing on launches in Tier-II/III cities and mid-income housing where demand remains resilient.

9. Primary Markets & IPOs

IPO activity intensified with Tata Capital’s ₹20,000+ crore issue opening today, followed by LG Electronics India later this month.

SME IPOs such as Rukmani Devi Garg Agro Impex and Bhavik Enterprises listed today with strong grey-market indications.

Analysts expect over ₹60,000 crore of new issuance in Q4 2025, which could temporarily absorb liquidity from secondary markets.

Investor Insights

IPO Flows to Drive Near-Term Sentiment: Large-cap IPOs are expected to attract both domestic and FPI money, influencing liquidity distribution in the broader market.

Earnings Season Focus: With Q2 results starting this week, market direction will depend on margin trends and management commentary.

Metal & PSU Banks in Momentum: These sectors continue to lead gains; however, profit-booking could emerge near resistance zones.

Volatility Ahead: Traders should brace for sharp swings around earnings, global data releases, and geopolitical developments.

Defensive Allocation: FMCG, healthcare, and utilities remain preferred defensive plays amid uncertain global risk sentiment.