GLOBAL SHOCK: OCTOBER 11, 2025

On October 11, 2025, President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports and export restrictions on critical U.S. software, retaliating against China’s rare earth mineral export ban.

The decision triggered a global market meltdown:

Global equities lost $1.6 trillion in value in a single trading session.

Bitcoin plunged 10%, while crypto markets faced $19.3 billion in forced liquidations — the largest in history.

Asian markets are expected to open sharply lower on Monday as investors reassess trade and currency risks.

Safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries surged amid risk aversion.

This development is expected to dominate market sentiment next week.

Market Outlook

Markets will begin the week digesting the U.S.–China tariff escalation. Volatility is expected to remain high as investors weigh potential spillovers on trade, commodities, and technology supply chains.

Domestic triggers such as Q2 corporate earnings, FII flows, and macro data will guide sentiment. Investors are likely to favor defensives—utilities, FMCG, and select pharma—while cyclicals may face headwinds.

Key Factors to Watch

India:

Q2FY26 earnings from major IT and banking companies.

WPI & CPI inflation readings.

RBI commentary on currency management after rupee weakness.

SEBI circulars on SME listing norms and compliance tightening.

Global:

U.S. inflation and retail sales data.

China’s response to U.S. trade actions.

Movement in Brent crude, expected to stay volatile around $86–88/bbl.

ECB and BoE speakers’ remarks on inflation trajectory.

Investor Insight

Short-term traders should brace for volatility spikes and focus on hedged strategies.

Long-term investors may view corrections in quality large caps as entry opportunities, especially in energy transition, infrastructure, and financials.